Last Updated on January 9, 2024 12:50 pm by Laszlo Szabo / NowadAIs | Published on January 9, 2024 by Laszlo Szabo / NowadAIs
Rodney Brooks’ Prediction: A Candid Look at AI’s Realistic Future in 2024 – Key Notes
- Rodney Brooks’ Credibility: A renowned roboticist and former director of the Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory at MIT.
- 2024 Prediction Overview: A cautionary stance on the AI hype, particularly around self-driving cars, robotics, AI, and machine learning.
- AI Hype Cycle: Brooks highlights the recurring nature of over-expectations in AI, noting that 2024 is not a breakthrough year.
- Generative AI: Brooks points out the inflated hype in 2023, especially following the release of advanced Large Language Models.
- Data Access in Robotics: Predicts a significant role for data access in robotics valuations, emphasizing the emergence of humanoids and self-driving cargo.
- Self-Driving Cars: A reality check on the current state versus the optimistic forecasts by major companies.
- Technological Progression: Brooks reminds us of the nascent stage of AI and the need for continuous work in the field.
Rodney Brooks’ Prediction Scorecard for 2024
Renowned roboticist Rodney Brooks has released his annual prediction scorecard for 2024, and it’s not all good news for the world of Artificial Intelligence.
Brooks, who is a former director of the Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory at MIT, has been making predictions about self-driving cars, robotics, AI, and machine learning since 2018.
In his latest scorecard, Brooks predicted that 2024 won’t be a golden age for AI, noting that the current fanfare is
“following a well-worn hype cycle that we have seen again, and again, during the 60+ year history of AI.”
The AI Winter is Coming
“Get your thick coats now…. There may be yet another AI winter, and perhaps even a full-scale tech winter, just around the corner. And it is going to be cold,”
Brooks concluded.
While Brooks is far from a pessimistic Luddite, he has been studying AI since the 1970s and has seen it all before. His technological prophecies are often right on the money, and his latest predictions are no exception.
Generative AI and the Hype Cycle
Brooks’ predictions for 2024 are particularly relevant to the current state of generative AI.
In his scorecard, he notes that
“2023 was the year when the hype around artificial intelligence (AI) went into hyperdrive.”
Following the release of ChatGPT-3 in late 2022, AI technology became accessible and genuinely useful to the general public, prompting the development of numerous other Large Language Models (LLM) by some of Silicon Valley’s biggest players.
The Battle for Data Access Supremacy
While AI may be massively overhyped, Rodney Brooks prediction is a critical underlying battle for data access supremacy in AI robotics valuations. He predicts that
“humanoids are here! Commercially available, and at a lower price point than you’d think.”
He also notes that
“self-driving cargo is a winning category,”
and that
“robotics valuations will rise.”
The Top Three Trends in Robotics and AI for 2024
Rodney Brooks’ prediction highlights the top three trends in Robotics for 2024: the rise of humanoids, the importance of data access, and the potential of self-driving cargo as a winning category.
He notes that
“humanoids are here,”
and that
“AI may be massively overhyped, but there is a critical underlying battle for data access supremacy in robotics valuations.”
Self-Driving Cars: A Reality Check
Rodney Brooks highlights the overhyped expectations around self-driving cars. Despite bold predictions by major companies, the reality of autonomous vehicles is far behind.
Brooks emphasizes the significant gap between optimistic forecasts and the current state of technology, challenging the prevalent AI hype.
“Don’t hold your breath. They are not here. They are not coming soon.”
he stated.
A Breaking Cycle?
In conclusion, Rodney Brooks’ prediction scorecard for 2024 is a sobering reminder that the current AI hype cycle may not be sustainable.
While there are certainly exciting developments in the field of AI, it’s important to remember that the technology is still in its infancy and that there is much work to be done.
FAQ
1. What is Rodney Brooks known for? Rodney Brooks is a renowned roboticist, known for his work as a former director of the MIT Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory and his influential contributions to the field of robotics and AI.
2. What does Brooks predict for AI in 2024? Brooks predicts that 2024 will not be a golden age for AI, highlighting the overhyped expectations and the recurring nature of the AI hype cycle.
3. How does Brooks view the progress in self-driving cars? Brooks provides a reality check on self-driving cars, noting that the current technological development is far behind the optimistic forecasts made by major companies.
4. What are the key areas of focus in Brooks’ 2024 predictions? Brooks focuses on the overhyped nature of AI, the state of generative AI, the role of data access in robotics, the development of humanoids and self-driving cargo, and the reality of self-driving cars.
5. What is Brooks’ overall message regarding AI development? Brooks’ overall message is one of caution and realism. He emphasizes the need to understand AI’s current limitations and the importance of continued work and research in the field.
